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[Investment Summary] Gonjicchi style investment technique - terrain edition -



Roughly speaking

  1. Investment techniques. The warm market rate for April. Apparently it's a decent profit.
  2. What is the market trend? There's nothing bad about going against the local situation.
  3. What is a trading method that helps you get ahead of the market and what is trend follow?


April. The most profitable area of ​​the year


It's about stock investment. The investment technique series is as follows. The volume version, which is used frequently, is a must-read. It's a good mechanism to keep up with the big mouth.


With April 1st, growth stocks that had been sold regardless of their performance have come back to life, and value stocks that had been bought with peace of mind have begun to fall. The situation remains booming throughout April. The investment boom has continued to progress since 2020, and investment mindset has improved, so I look forward to the buying market in April, which is said to be the most successful in the year.


As I mentioned earlier, interest in large investors is now shifting from value stocks to growth stocks. In this case, no matter how good a company is performing, stock prices may fall, or stock prices may rise sharply, regardless of their performance, as expectations are read and expectations are read. Since individual investors cannot do anything with capital power, of course, it is not possible to induce stock prices. You need to get used to being moved that cannot be understood by logic. The more you train your logic, the more you stick to your own logic and lose a lot, so I hope you will quickly become a sense of the market.


In the Investment Techniques series, we recommend a trading method that repeatedly observes large-scale movements, but the Production, which we introduced last time, is useful for understanding large-scale trades.



What is the market trend? There's nothing good going against the local situation


The market trend reflects the atmosphere of the entire market participants. This is also said to be the market trend in individual stocks, and is sometimes used for the entire market, where "the Japanese market is worse than the US."


Gonjicchi recommends not opposed to the local situation, but simply follow the trends with a high win rate. This requires the skills to read the local situation.


How can I read the local situation? There are many points to note, but here are three main ones.



Nikkei Average and TOPIX


First up is the Nikkei average and the TOPIX. The Nikkei Average is an index that is well known in the news and other media, and is a simple average of the stock prices of 225 companies set by the Nihon Keizai Shimbun. To be precise, taking into account stock splits and face value, the total stock price of 225 stocks is 27.769. The keyword is simple average. A simple average is influenced by stocks with a high contribution, such as Fast Retailing (9983) and Tokyo Electron (8035), so to be honest, the gap tends to be so different that it cannot be said to represent the overall market atmosphere of Japan's market. TOPIX solved this problem, but the Nikkei average is overwhelmingly popular overseas, so it is still being used.


TOPIX is a true indicator of the health status of Japan's market. TOPIX is an index of the market capitalization since January 4th, 1968, with the base index of 100. The target is all stocks on the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange (approximately 2,200 companies), and is calculated from the total market capitalization, so just because the company's unit price is high will not be affected. It should be more known, but due to the power of tradition, it is not as well known as the Nikkei average.


The Bank of Japan will stop buying Nikkei ETFs from April 2021 and start buying 100% TOPIX-linked purchases, which is a big news in looking at the market. Until now, the Nikkei average was the Nikkei average, so the Bank of Japan's contributions are high, with only 225 companies including Fast Retailing, and it was also highly pointed out that this was unfair. With this news from the Bank of Japan released in late March, all Nikkei average's representative stocks fell stock prices. Many investors probably made money by short selling at this time. Knowing the market situation can sometimes allow you to trade with a high win rate.



US Treasury 10 Pension Rates


The next step is the 10-year U.S. Treasury Treasury interest rate. Why is this attracting attention? Government bonds are bonds issued by the government, and if they are 10-year government bonds, the bonds can be converted into cash at yields in 10 years. Corporate bonds are bonds issued by companies. Since the country is the issuer, it is unlikely that the country will fail to pay on bond maturity, let alone the United States. In that case, US Treasury will attract attention as an investment target with low risk to stocks. Similarly, what can be considered low-risk assets is gold. Recently, for some reason, Bitcoin has become an alternative asset over gold, but


Bonds have complex commodity characteristics, as the period until maturity affects supply and demand, but in general, the behavior is the opposite of stocks. In other words, during a boom situation where stocks are likely to be bought, US Treasury yields become less popular, so yields will rise to make them look even more attractive. It is relatively better to buy US Treasury bonds, especially if stock investments fail due to a recession, government bonds will be bought and yields will fall.


There's nothing good about going against the market


The atmosphere in the market changes quickly. This week, the overwhelming growth stocks and stock prices have returned, completely changing from the value stocks and unstable market movements up until last week. In other words, the market has improved. At this time, what is required of investors is to modify the flexible scenario. This means that you'll immediately throw away what you thought was right up until last week, and start thinking that new ones are right this week. This is the act of getting on the market without going against the market, and is a trending follow-up. And if you continue to act against the local situation, you will lose a lot in an instant. Beginners in investing, especially intellectuals, are likely to lose to an atmosphere that is hard to understand with this logic. I hope they will train them to make stock prices moves that are not linked to performance positive.



Strategies that just get on the market, trend followers



Trend Following is a strategy that quickly detects changes in market prices and individual stocks' market conditions and continues to ride the waves like a certain kind of Aikido. Unlike Buffett's long-term investment, it's not a strategy that involves believing in something and keeping it in place. If I had to believe it, it would be the land.


Trend follow strategies are particularly effective in the short term (1 day-1 month) to medium term (several months). I have also begun to shift this week's market price to stocks that had been falling recently, such as semiconductors. At this time I cut a few losses. It's painful when cutting losses, but not getting on the trend could lead to serious injuries that would never return, so I had no choice but to cut losses.


For more details, read "Trend Following Complete", but you should consider that you will steadily continue your strategy of focusing on the local situation and taking on the local situation. While it is easier to achieve results than other methods, for some people, pride may get in the way and it may not work, so I hope you will train and practice it as a stock aikido.



The perfect time to invest in is coming in spring


It appears that around March-April, the market is falling for a while and is hitting bottom. With vaccines on the rise, there will likely be some stocks that will attract attention in hopes of economic recovery. In other words, there is a high possibility that anyone can win. The systems for online securities companies are also operating steadily, and DMM Securities and Rakuten Securities in particular use their experience in FX, which boasts overwhelming trading volumes, and it is recommended as there are no cases where orders have not been passed due to system downs, as they are not the case like any securities company. Nowadays, investment is popular and it tends to be delayed in opening an account, so I recommend that you proceed as soon as possible.


[DMM Stock] account opening