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【Systems Thinking】How to make a weak soccer team stronger
In a nutshell
- I love soccer so much that I try to check every J1 League match, but it's always great to see a giant-killing.
- The cruel reality. Even from a systems thinking perspective, there is a loop where weak teams get weaker and strong teams get stronger.
- The way for a weak team to go against the loop and become stronger is to develop and sell young players, and to strengthen teamwork by fixing the members.
I love soccer
I love soccer. My favorite teams are 【Kawasaki Frontale】, 【FC Tokyo】, and 【Oita Trinita】. I basically try to watch every J1 match, but when I don't have time, I watch the teams above.
Why do people who have never played soccer like it? It's probably because of games. As I tried and erred with team formations and plays in FIFA 20, I learned the depth of the game and came to want to learn from actual matches. Now I think about whether this play or that play was the right decision, whether this teamwork was practiced or accidental, and I incorporate it into my game. It's interesting because it actually has an effect. By the way, my favorite formation is 4-2-3-1.
Even in games, it's well-designed these days, but basically, football teams have a structure where strong teams get stronger and weak teams get weaker. When a weak team beats a strong team, it's called a "giant-killing," and it's an extremely rare match.
Even in this year's J1 season, Oita Trinita, which had fallen to J3, was promoted to J1 for the first time in a while, and with the success of manager Katanosaka and each player, they are in the top half of the table. In the early stages, we saw them toying with one top team after another with a very well-thought-out strategy. Unfortunately, they sold their top scorer, Fujimoto, to Vissel Kobe midway through the season, so they are currently struggling to score goals and are in the process of rebuilding.
Based on systems thinking, a cruel reality loop emerges.
The loop where weak teams get weaker and strong teams get stronger
I will leave the details to another article. The above diagram is called a causal loop diagram, and it illustrates the causal relationships between elements. 【Systems Thinking】Why do we drink too much? Why is traffic congestion not solved? 【Systems Thinking】Why do people who are a little good at their jobs quit? 【Systems Thinking】Why has Mercari accelerated its growth?
The most important element in the diagram above is the winning percentage. An increase in the winning percentage has a positive effect on the desire to watch and the number of fans, and brings a large positive feedback to fan expansion, ticket revenue, goods revenue, and media revenue.
Based on the resulting revenue, it becomes possible to invest in players and stadiums, and the motivation and quality of the players improve.
Of course, for the strong, elements that make them stronger are born one after another. Conversely, for the weak, they will gradually decline.
With this diagram, it is possible to verify which variable has an impact on each team. If a strong effect is brought to some variable, the team's growth loop may suddenly start to move. In the next chapter, I will consider how a weak team can become stronger.
How a weak team can become stronger
So how should a weak team fight? Let's think about it by focusing on the variables.
Acquire players with abundant financial resources [Invest in players]
Vissel Kobe, which has acquired one overseas star player after another, such as Iniesta, Podolski, and David Villa, with the strong backing of Rakuten, is a typical example. If the budget allows, it is the fastest way to become stronger.
However, there are drawbacks, such as the team not functioning well due to the skill gap when the players actually join the team, and the team play not functioning due to the skill gap. In fact, even after inviting players from overseas, Vissel Kobe was not able to win consistently for a while.
However, after a certain period of time, the abilities of the existing players and the team play will improve in line with the world class, so if you play several games with a fixed member, you will often become stronger at once. It is a pity that David Villa is retiring this year, but if I were to name a candidate for the championship next year, Vissel Kobe would be at the top of the list.
Deepen local exchanges and increase the number of fans [Number of fans]
Well, the first strategy is almost a joke. In general, a weak team would not have such a budget. This is where the main topic begins. This is a strategy to increase the number of fans by increasing local exchanges and events instead of practicing. This strategy, which at first glance seems irrational (I stole the words from "Competitive Strategy as a Story"), is a big key to turning the winning percentage loop from a systems thinking perspective.
Kawasaki Frontale, the perennial powerhouse that won the J1 League for two consecutive years until 2018, is a team that evolved into a powerhouse by thoroughly committing to community involvement. In 2001, Kawasaki Frontale was relegated to the J2 League and entered a period of misfortune. In parallel with tactical changes such as counter-attacking soccer and the penetration of manager Kazama's playing style, they thoroughly committed to community involvement in their local city of Kawasaki. Currently, in a spectator survey from 2010 to 2017, they have been recognized as the top team for "making a significant contribution in their hometown" for seven consecutive years. By the way, Kawasaki City has a sad past, such as the hometown change of the former Tokyo Kawasaki Verdy to Tokyo, but that is a small talk for soccer fans, so I will leave it at that.
In the early 2000s, they planned various events for children and housewives who were not interested in Frontale. A typical measure is for a soccer club to distribute Frontale newspapers and math drills at elementary schools. At that time, Kawasaki Frontale, which was in J2, published a Frontale newspaper as a school handout and provided a system where you could watch a stadium game for 100 yen. The math drill, in which soccer players appear in the drill, seems to have been based on what the English Premier League powerhouse "Arsenal" distributed at local schools. 
From "【Loved and Victorious】What is the relationship building of J1 Kawasaki Frontale, which continues to be supported by fans and the community?"
Can you see that this seemingly irrational strategy is an important factor in increasing the club team's revenue? As a result of steadily turning the loop of revenue and investment in players and stadiums, they now boast top popularity and strength.
Actively develop and use young members to improve the team's skills and sell players at a high price [Average skill of players]
I heard a voice saying that even if you build a local relationship, you won't be popular if you're not strong in the end, so finally, let's think about a player investment strategy.
The aforementioned Kawasaki Frontale, Kashima Antlers, and Shonan Bellmare are all hitting the mark with this strategy. All teams are strengthening their youth development and the use of young players, and many are being sold at high prices both domestically and overseas.
In La Liga (Spanish league), Levante UD was originally a second-division team, but is now a mid-table team in the first division that has become stronger as a result of focusing on developing young players.
From Ichiro Ozawa's Note "Levante UD's Integrated Development Strategy and 'Bunbu Ryodo' in Spanish Development"
In Spain, the development of young players is thorough, and now 80% of 11-12 year old players have agents, so the development is intensifying. In the player development rankings, Real Madrid is in 1st place, Barcelona is in 2nd place, and Valencia is in 4th place, among other top teams.
Levante UD's development policy for soccer players is to provide educational support for the intelligence part necessary for modern soccer by focusing not only on pure soccer skills but also on the players' intelligence, that is, their academic studies. It is said that the captain of the Levante B team in 2018 graduated from the Faculty of Pharmacy, which is a difficult faculty at a Spanish university.
By focusing on the development of the lower organization, it is possible to save on the overall salary of the players and increase revenue by selling them to powerhouse clubs, and it becomes possible to reverse the loop of the weak. The development policy for soccer in Japan cannot be said to be thorough in the intelligence part that is important in modern soccer, so if a club team is born that balances academics and soccer, it may produce an unexpected star player.
Aside (Recommended Book)
A recommended design book. It's packed with design tips that you can use forever. I use it often myself.
