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[Game Design Bible] Congratulations on Dragon Quest 12! ! How interesting does probability make the game in RPGs?


Roughly speaking

  1. Dragon Quest 12 is now on sale! Actually, Gonjicchi can't do RPGs.
  2. The essence of game fun lies in probability. Why does probability make a game interesting?
  3. How are probabilities interesting in RPGs?


Dragon Quest 12 on sale! RPGs are fun secrets


On Thursday, May 27th, the release of Dragon Quest 12 was announced on the official YouTube channel. This is probably the long-awaited new RPG for Dragon Quest fans.


By the way, Gonjicchi only plays racing and simulation games, so he doesn't play RPGs much, but I can relate to the fun of adventures and exploring them with his friends. The only one I was playing, the most interesting thing was.


The RPG game system is exactly the mechanism created by Dragon Quest, but it allows you to experience adventure and growth through clever mechanisms. It's a mechanism that creates ups and downs that you can't experience in movies.



In fact, if you explore the appeal of RPGs from a book on how to make games, you will find that a certain keyword creates fun. It is "probability". In Dragon Quest, if a strong enemy golem appears, you will be forced to fight a tough battle. On the other hand, Hare Metal gives you a large amount of experience points. Now let's look at the probability of games from "Game Design Bible 2nd Edition - 113 "lenses" that dramatically improves your fun (Jesse Schell/O'Reilly). By the way, I've introduced this book in the past, so please read other articles as well.





There is a chance that makes the user think that they have a skill


Probability has the effect of making the user calculate the expected value and making the user think that he or she has the skill to predict the probability.


The first point is easy to understand. Dice is a game with a total probability of 1/6, but if you play Blackjack as a single card, the cards will appear at any time as the game progresses. Users always calculate their expectations and try to win.


The second important thing to get hooked on in the game is the system that "expands your skills to predict probability." As expected of the Game Design Bible, it's not just an explanatory book. It makes you think about the mechanisms you want to add to from the creator's perspective.


The relationship between probability and skill is as follows:


  • Probability guessing can be a rewarding skill. What makes skilled players better than amateurs is the difference in predictive ability of probability distributions.
  • Skills have a chance of success. Every action risks failure, and taking risks is also a skill.
  • The guessing of your opponent's skills will also become a skill. It's a skill to guess what the other person knows, what they don't know, and how they act?
  • Speculation of pure luck elements becomes an imaginary skill. This is the mechanism to get you hooked. The human brain tends to try to find patterns for random events. The fallacy of good fortune that happiness seems likely to last a long time, and the gambler's superstition (if you lose this far, you'll win next time) are typical misunderstandings of luck. It's just an imaginary skill, so humans mistakenly think it's a skill even though it's meaningless.
  • Controlling pure luck elements becomes an imaginary skill. It's pointless to carry a gen when rolling a dice or say "Come in! Come in!" But when you get it, you feel like you have that kind of skill.

So, which effect is active in RPGs? Let's think about it.



How much does probability play a role in RPG?


In RPGs, combat is the most likely effect. First, the encounter rate with the enemy.


In Dragon Quest, you will randomly encounter enemies when walking through the field. Sometimes you meet strong enemies, sometimes you meet lucky enemies. The setting is in the game and is not clear. Here are gamers who try hard to find out that there is a law. This is a mechanism to spend time trying to hone your probability guessing skills. And, with the exception of some regions, it is often a pure luck factor, and it is easy to waste time. This is a system in which people try to pattern pure luck elements, and are in a state where they are hooked on the swamp themselves.


Even when attacking when you actually encounter an opponent, it includes factors such as a "critical hit" or "running away." What's complicated is factors that change the probability of weapons and quickness, creating patterns that even game creators can't imagine. When attacking your opponent, you need to guess your opponent's attack in advance, and you end up trying to acquire the skills to consider the opponent's skills based on the character's name and attributes. Incidentally, in Dragon Quest, only Dragon Quest 1 is a system in which speed and defensive ability are correlated, but from 2 onwards it is an independent element. It's worth conquering.


Dragon Quest also finds predictions of probability distributions over a larger time axis. It's a dungeon. If you enter a dungeon, you will be confirmed that you will not be able to return to town for a while. In this case, it is necessary to draw a probability distribution to see how efficiently you should explore so that you do not die. Many gamers are sure to be familiar with the sense of stunning feeling when they try hard not to encounter strong enemies while leaving them home at the very last minute.


The desire to predict probability and control probability is a fundamental desire designed in humans. I'm looking forward to seeing what probability distribution will be drawn in Dragon Quest 12.