[Momotaro Dentetsu] Try to bring investment ideas to Momotetsu - To seriously win -

Roughly speaking

1. Congratulations! Momotetsu is back. As an electric railway company, buy up properties and aim to become the top of your assets.
2. To seriously win, try a property profitability analysis. The timing of buying is also important.
3. Think about how to play Momotetsu using the golden rule of investment.

Momotaro Dentetsu is back

Momotetsu finally returns on the Switch.

Momotaro Dentetsu is a sarcastic party game that has caused distortions in many friendships.

To those who are not familiar with this, this is a board game that is like a 2-4-person match. Each player becomes the president of a railway company, aiming to reach the goal stations across the country, while also buying up properties and aiming to become the top of their assets. This game recreates the history of various railway companies, such as Tokyu Corporation and Seibu Railway, which have expanded their assets centered around the railway network.

If you ask about three people, I think one person knows Momotetsu or has the Momotetsu from this time. I hope you will try playing with evidence rather than arguments. If you try it, you will understand why there is a distortion in friendship.

This time I would like to talk about how Momotetsu is useful for simple investing studies. In fact, the techniques for acquiring properties and the essence of investments lead to gameplay stances.

Try a simple NPV version of the property profitability analysis.

At Momotetsu, it is important to buy up assets more and more. When you stop at the property station, you can purchase the property with money, and in April every year, you can earn the amount of the property's value multiplied by the rate of return. Furthermore, the value of the property will be recorded as the total assets at the end of the game after a specified number of years, so it is important to hold as much assets as possible.

In the case of Hitachinaka Station in the image above, for example, the Nemophila Hill that you are currently purchasing has a 10% return rate of 1 billion yen, so you can get 100 million yen each year in April.

$$10 * 0.1 = 1$$

In other words, if you buy a highly profitable property early, you will receive a flat rate every year, which is an advantage, but in the beginning you will have little money so you will need to buy something with a high profit rate (such as a drying mochi shop), and in the later period you will need to buy something with a high asset value (such as a general electrical manufacturer) because total assets are important.

In the world of investment, the property's asset value is achieved using NPV (net present value) and IRR (internal rate of return). An NPV is the amount of initial investment obtained by subtracting the initial investment amount from the total of future returns calculated by discounting future profits to the present, and Momotetsu's benefits of having a property in the early stages can be calculated. I will not explain this time, but with regard to IRR, the return rate of investment over a certain period is calculated based on NPV.

Let's calculate the NPV using Momotetsu. Considering the game for five years, if you purchase a dried sweet potato shop with a 10 million yen and a 50% profit rate in your first year and earn 5 million yen for nine years in your 2-5th year, the NPV for dried sweet potato shop is as follows (units are 10,000 yen).

Initial investment is 10 million yen. From the second to fifth years, you will receive returns from the financial statements at 5 million yen each, and the assets of the property are recorded as is at the end of the game, so it is 10 million yen. Therefore, the NPV will be 20 million yen. *The reality is that NPV is to consider the discount rate as the present value of future returns, but here we do not assume a discount rate.

$$-1,000 + 500 \times 4 + 1,000 = 2,000$$

If you buy in your second year and get a return of 3-5 years, the property's NPV will fall to 15 million yen.

$$-1,000 + 500 \times 3 + 1,000 = 1,500$$

In other words, the price of not purchasing at a property station once makes a big difference later.

Let's consider a troublesome example. It is difficult to buy Nemophila Hill (1 billion yen for a 10% return rate) and the fish market (1.4 billion yen for a 2% return rate).

Nemophila Hill receives 100 million yen per year, and 28 million yen per year in April at the fish market. Nemophila Hill is 72 million yen per year, so if the remaining years are 1.94 years, that is, if you have more than two years, it would be better to buy Nemophila Hill (the unit shown in the figure below is 1,000 yen).

$$140 million yen \div 72 million yen = 1.94 years$$

As the remaining years go by, you will find it difficult to buy a property, although you have extra money. Calculate your returns and be careful of wasteful spending.

Strategy for Momotetsu using the golden rules of investment

Momotetsu is just like an asset management simulation. The battle is to slowly increase assets using 10 million yen, and the fact that assets inflation occurs in the second half of the year also recreates the principles of capitalism. Here we will explain the golden rules of investment by applying it to Momotetsu.

Momotetsu's classic is to escape in the beginning. In the early days, you can't earn a large amount of money except for getting the first one to your destination. The principle that money generates money also applies to Momotetsu. First, I'll just think about how to quickly advance my destination, and I don't buy any properties at property stations except in March, but even if I buy them, I'll just go with cards that increase the number of dice, such as express cards at card stations.

Once you have managed to get a large sum of money at your destination, it's finally time for asset management to begin. With NPV in mind, we will purchase properties to maximize expected returns. I'm just searching for value stocks. With property liquid, you should mentally calculate the expected return, remaining years + asset value, and make sure you can intuitively select the largest property. And according to the golden rules of capitalism, it is important to destroy the other party's expansion loop in their assets management as much as possible, so be sure to focus on eliminating their other party's money. One day, an absolute difference will never be able to keep up.

In the second half, no matter how much you use it, you won't be able to use it all. Pay attention to loss aversion. What you should be careful about is the Lehman shock, that is, Ginji, the pickpocket. This will take away half or all of your savings. However, he has the characteristic of being Toyw, which does not appear at property stations. In other words, try to stop at the property station as much as possible and use up all your money. Turn it into assets and lose liquidity.