【Systems Thinking】Why do we drink too much? Why is traffic congestion not solved?

In a nutshell

1. While logical thinking is widespread, systems thinking is not well known.
2. Logical thinking is good at breaking things down, while systems thinking is good at seeing the connections between things.
3. The problem of traffic congestion cannot be solved with logical thinking. It can be solved with systems thinking.

A thinking method superior to logical thinking? Systems thinking

Books on logical thinking are lined up in bookstores. Every highly conscious member of society has probably heard of logic trees and MECE. Logical thinking, which has been applied mainly in the consulting industry, has now become essential knowledge for working adults.

Of course, logical thinking is a very important skill. However, there is another thinking method that is taught as an important skill in science and engineering. This is systems thinking.

For example, many of the problems in the world, such as the problem of drinking too much, the problem of improving traffic congestion, and how to motivate employees, are often better thought about using systems thinking rather than logical thinking.

Why is it better to think with systems thinking? In a word, it is because you can grasp the changes brought about between elements.

The difference between logical thinking and systems thinking

Logical thinking has a strength in breaking down factors.

For example, in response to the question, "Why are profits not increasing?", if you break down the factors, there will generally be two.

• Because sales are not increasing
• Because costs such as labor costs are increasing

On the other hand, systems thinking has a strength in expressing the effects between elements.

For example, in response to the question, "Why do I drink too much?", you can use a causal loop diagram of systems thinking to express it as shown in the figure below. I will explain it below.

1. [Amount of alcohol consumed] increases (note that a line is drawn from [Amount of alcohol consumed] in the middle of the figure above, and a + mark is attached)
2. When the [amount of alcohol consumed] increases, the following changes occur, but in all cases, the changes occur slowly.
   1. The [upper limit of alcohol consumption] slowly decreases. The amount you can drink does not decrease immediately.
      1. From the [amount of alcohol consumed] on the left, there is a + effect on the [upper limit of alcohol consumption], but it is slow.
      2. From the [upper limit of alcohol consumption], there is a - effect on the [amount of alcohol consumed exceeding the upper limit], but it takes time for this to occur.
   2. The [degree of drunkenness] slowly increases. Since drunkenness comes on slowly, there is a time lag.
      1. From the [amount of alcohol consumed], there is a + effect on the [degree of drunkenness], but it is slow.
      2. The [degree of drunkenness] has a - effect on the [amount of alcohol consumed], but it takes time for this to occur.
3. The amount of alcohol consumed increases steadily, without waiting for the changes that would normally occur with drinking.
4. Eventually, the [amount of alcohol consumed exceeding the upper limit] reaches its peak, and you pass out drunk.

Let's apply systems thinking to the problem of traffic congestion

The problem of traffic congestion is a good example of a problem that cannot be solved by logical thinking and to which systems thinking can be applied.

When traffic congestion occurs, the first improvement measure that comes to mind with logical thinking is to "widen the road." (Of course, there are also solutions such as making tolls, applying ordinances such as congestion taxes, but here we will focus on the general solution of widening the road)

But think about it carefully. Widening the road increases the number of cars that can pass, but at the same time, it may increase the convenience of the road and cause more cars to pass.

In systems thinking, it can be represented by a causal loop diagram as shown in the figure above. It is possible to visualize that there are two effects: an effect that reduces the length of the traffic jam and an effect that increases it.

The example of traffic congestion is what is called a "side effect," but because this visualization is not possible, measures that were initially thought to be effective often fail.

Only by mastering systems thinking in addition to logical thinking can you solve problems without any omissions.

Aside (Recommended Book)

A recommended design book. It's packed with design tips that you can use forever. I use it often myself.