【Self-Serving Bias】Don't think you're the only one who will be saved

In a nutshell

1. I was shocked by the cruel fact of the survival rate data for light novel authors. If I were aiming to become a light novel author, I shouldn't think that I would be saved.
2. People make various mistakes by falling into the self-serving bias.
3. Know this. Don't think that you are the only one who will be saved. First, observe the phenomenon and find a high-probability pattern.

The survival rate of light novel authors is low

I happened to see the above Twitter post, and I was shocked by the cruel fact. It seems that if this data is correct, half of light novel authors will not be able to publish their next work in three years. In other words, they will be dead.

I suddenly think about what it would be like if I were aiming to become a light novel author. If I were aiming to become a light novel author and writing my manuscript every day with my imagination running wild, would I be able to see this data correctly? Probably not.

When faced with a cruel fact, only a handful of people can accept the fact and respond calmly.

Facing the cruel facts

When data tells a cruel fact, how do most people react?

They think that it doesn't apply to them, that they will be fine, as if it were someone else's problem. In psychology, this is called "self-serving bias."

"Self-serving bias" is the tendency to attribute success to one's own internal or personal factors and failure to uncontrollable situational factors. Self-serving bias describes the general human tendency to take credit for success but not take responsibility for failure.
For example, people overestimate and retain evidence that supports their own theories, and underestimate or completely disregard evidence to the contrary.
(from wikipedia)

Psychology explains various unconscious cognitive distortions, but this self-serving bias is the first bias that should be overcome if one is to live consciously.

A common example of business failure. When a general employee proposes a business plan to his or her superiors or management, he or she may pick up only convenient data and propose it in a state of narcissism, and the management may misunderstand and make a big mistake. Of course, it is fine if you want to use the self-serving bias effectively to increase your motivation, but if you are unaware of it, you are a fool.

An example of an engineer. Engineers sometimes have to deal with projects that are on fire with technical issues or schedules. If you get strangely used to this experience, you may fail one project after another in a state of narcissism, thinking that you can somehow manage with sheer willpower. You should only think that you can do something you did before if the conditions are the same.

An example of a PM (project manager). A failing PM is usually the type who thinks that they can somehow manage with sheer willpower, or the type who ignores the cruel facts. A successful PM is a PM who lists all the risks and continues to make decisions without running away from them. They know how to make a strategic retreat, and they will negotiate if necessary. The job of a PM is to make the project a success, not to protect their pride.

An example of investing. A common mistake is to fall in love with a stock. You buy more of a stock that you are convinced is good, even if the price goes down. Just to be clear, when a stock price goes down, no one knows how far it will go down, and no one knows how far it will go up. The iron rule is to set and stick to your own high-probability investment principles, and if you are wrong, to continue to revise your principles.

An example of cryptocurrency. A cryptocurrency bubble occurred at the end of 2017 and collapsed in January 2018. At the end of 2017, many ordinary people got into cryptocurrency. There is an investment principle that says, "Sell when the shoeshine boy owns stocks." If ordinary people are buying cryptocurrency, it means that demand has been exhausted, and the next thing to wait for is a sell-off.

Don't think you're the only one who will be saved

I have made many mistakes and caused a lot of trouble. And unfortunately, I have a feeling that I will continue to cause trouble in the future.

I have decided how to face the cruel facts. It is to "observe the phenomenon and find a high-probability pattern."

This is something that was written in someone's autobiography, and it is something that I also value. I will describe the details in another article.

In life, you get caught up in all sorts of phenomena. At that time, there are times when things go well and times when they fail. In fact, there is a pattern.

At this time, you fail. At that time, you succeed. When I did this, it went well. When I did that, it failed.

After realizing that you are ignorant, you accumulate, abstract, and take notes on the principles you have found.

First, the wisdom of ignorance. Know that you are ignorant and come up with a realistic solution.

If you are proposing a business to management, try putting the risks on the second page of your proposal. If they are management, they should have a variety of experience. They may come up with something. If they do, you may have crushed a business failure risk.

If you are working as an engineer and there is a field you are not good at, ask a senior for help or have them help you.

A PM should face the risks, withdraw from what is not working no matter what, and concentrate resources.

If you are investing, don't get caught up in your feelings, observe the charts and fundamentals, and make a decision. If there is a change, update your decision.

As for cryptocurrency, determine its value for yourself and learn about the principles of bubbles and how cryptocurrency is treated in the world. You should realize that cryptocurrency is now called crypto assets and is beginning to have the value of a risk hedge asset. There are also various other special conditions. If you investigate, you should notice them.

Don't think you're the only one who will be saved, this is a fact. However, if you can find a pattern that will save you...

Observe the phenomenon and try to find a pattern. I know it's hard. So let's do it together.

Aside (Recommended Book)

A recommended design book. It's packed with design tips that you can use forever. I use it often myself.